Asanov, I., & Mavlikeeva, M. (2026). Is Self-Employment a Career Trap? A Large-Scale Field Experiment in the Labor Market. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/10422587261440312
As AI displaces entry-level jobs (Brynjolfsson et al., 2025), governments will grow more tempted to push young workers into self-employment. But what happens when those workers later try to return to traditional employment? The findings from our study with Maria Mavlikeeva speak directly to this concern.
We sent 8,328 fictitious résumés to 2,150 real job vacancies across Russia — one of the largest pre-registered correspondence experiments of its kind.
| Work Experience Senior Accountant Company LLC 2019 – present Junior Analyst Global Bank · 2016 – 2019 Education State University, 2016 Wage earner | Work Experience Senior Accountant Self-employed 2019 – present Junior Analyst Global Bank · 2016 – 2019 Education State University, 2016 Self-employed |
The key randomly assigned difference between résumés was employment status: some listed a company as employer, others listed the applicant as self-employed. Everything else — experience, education, age, gender — was identical and randomized.
We targeted six occupations across finance, IT, and public relations — applying for both managerial and associate professional positions within each industry.
| Information Technology | Finance | Public Relations | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Managers Higher skill |
IT Manager | Finance Manager | PR Manager |
| Associate Professionals Lower skill |
IT Technician | Accounting Associate | Event Planner |
We then measured whether employers were more or less likely to call back applicants for an interview depending on their employment status. Hypotheses were locked in before data collection and the study was pre-registered. There is an overall self-employment penalty — but the asymmetry across roles is stark.
The pattern sharpens at the occupation level: using O*NET managerial skill ratings, we find a clean dose-response — the lower the skill content of a role, the larger the penalty. Applicant demographics do not appear to explain the penalty. Gender, age, and education were all randomized independently, and none are associated with the effect.
Two mechanisms can explain why. Self-employment builds generalist skills — useful for managers — at the cost of the specialist depth associate roles demand. Employers appear to sense this mismatch.
But it goes beyond skills. Employers might also assume self-employed workers are too independent for subordinate roles. We tested this directly: adding a team-player statement to the cover note boosted callbacks for both groups — the penalty for self-employed applicants remained.
The policy implication deserves attention. Self-employment — promoted as opportunity — can become a trap for lower-skilled workers, scarring their future employability. As AI shrinks entry-level hiring and governments reach for entrepreneurship as the answer, our evidence urges caution: promoting self-employment among less-skilled workers without supporting their path back may transfer risk onto those least able to bear it.
Asanov, I., & Mavlikeeva, M. (2026). Is Self-Employment a Career Trap? A Large-Scale Field Experiment in the Labor Market. Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, 0(0). https://doi.org/10.1177/10422587261440312
Brynjolfsson, E., Li, D., & Raymond, L. (2025). Generative AI at work. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 140(2), pp. 889–942.
Pre-registered at AEA RCT Registry (AEARCTR-0001308). Conducted March–August 2017 in the Russian labor market. 8,328 résumés across 6 occupations, 3 industries, and 2 ISCO skill groups in the main analysis.
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